Simulation of Spring Discharge Using Deep Learning, Considering the
Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation
Abstract
Precipitation data collected from sparse monitoring stations in numerous
karst basins pose a challenge for hydrologic models to accurately
capture spatial and temporal correlation between precipitation and karst
spring discharge, hindering the development of robust simulation models.
To address this data scarcity issue, this study employes a coupled deep
learning model that integrates a variation autoencoder (VAE) for
augmenting precipitation data and a long short-term memory (LSTM)
network for karst spring discharge prediction. The VAE contributes by
generating synthetic precipitation data through an encoding-decoding
process. This process generalizes the observed precipitation data by
deriving joint latent distributions with improved preservation of
temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The combined
VAE-generated precipitation and observation data are used to train and
test the LSTM for predicting the spring discharge. Applied to
Niangziguan spring catchment in northern China, our coupled VAE/LSTM
model demonstrated significantly higher predictive accuracy compared to
a LSTM model using only field observations. We also explored temporal
and spatial correlations in the observed data and the impact of
different ratios of VAE-generated precipitation data to actual data on
model performances. Additionally, our study evaluated the effectiveness
of VAE-augmented data on various deep learning models and compared VAE
with other data augmentation techniques. Our study demonstrates that the
VAE offers a novel approach to address data scarcity and uncertainty,
improving learning generalization and predictive capability of various
hydrological models.