Understanding Induced Seismicity with a Discrete Fracture Network and
Matrix Model with Mohr-Coulomb Failure and Nonlinear Hydraulic
Diffusivity
Abstract
Injection-induced seismicity (IIS) typically occurs when pressure
diffuses from a sedimentary target formation down into fractured and
faulted, low-permeability, critically-stressed basement rock. Previous
studies of IIS have used basin-scale models of pressure diffusion that
rely on an equivalent porous medium (EPM) approach to assign hydraulic
diffusivity and a triggering pressure (TP) criteria for seismic
initiation. We show that these models employed unrealistically-large
values of hydraulic diffusivity, usually by neglecting the
compressibility of the fractures in the specific storage coefficient, to
result in pressure diffusion to seismogenic depths (≥2 km into the
basement). The EPM-TP approach does not explicitly represent the
mechanical and hydrologic behavior of fractures and faults, and it fails
to explain why relatively few disposal wells are associated with IIS. We
develop a parallelized, partially-coupled, hydro-mechanical, discrete
fracture network and matrix model (DFNM) model with thousands of
fractures and the capability to calculate Mohr-Coulomb (MC) failure to
indicate seismicity and alter hydraulic diffusivity. In consistent
comparisons, DFNM-MC simulations allow for deeper, more heterogeneous
pressure diffusion than EPM-TP simulations, and they do not need to
employ unrealistic diffusivity values to result in pressure diffusion to
seismogenic depths. A sensitivity analysis shows that small deviations
in fault orientation (≤2 degrees from optimal) and fracture network
density outside an intermediate range can drastically decrease the
likelihood of IIS, potentially explaining why only a small fraction of
disposal wells are associated with IIS. The EPM-TP approach is
unsuitable to investigate IIS, but the DFNM-MC approach offers a
promising, nuanced approach for further study.