Human influence on the increasing drought risk over Southeast Asian
monsoon region
Abstract
Southeast Asian monsoon region is regularly stricken by drought, but
less attention is paid due to its slow-onset and less visual impact.
This study investigated the observed drought changes over Southeast
Asian monsoon region and impacts of anthropogenic forcing using the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We
revealed an increasing drought risk for 1951-2018 due to more frequent
and wide-spread droughts. The influence of anthropogenic forcing is
successfully detected, which has increased the likelihood of the extreme
droughts in historical simulation by reducing precipitation and
enhancing evapotranspiration. The time of emergence of anthropogenic
forcing in extreme drought occurrence and affected area occurs around
the 1960s. The future projected severe and extreme drought risks are
still beyond natural only forced changes under all scenarios. Our
findings demonstrate a robust impact of anthropogenic forcing on drought
risk over Southeast Asia, and highlight the importance of future pathway
choice.