In Search of The Optimal Atmospheric River Index for US Precipitation: A
Multifactorial Analysis
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect surface hydrometeorology in the US West
Coast and Midwest. We systematically sought optimal AR indices for
expressing surface precipitation impacts within the Atmospheric River
Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) framework. We adopted a
multifactorial approach. Four factors—moisture fields, climatological
thresholds, shape criteria, and temporal thresholds—collectively
generated 81 West Coast AR indices and 81 Midwest indices from January
1980 to June 2017. Two moisture fields were extracted from the MERRA-2
data for ARTMIP: integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and integrated
water vapor (IWV). Metrics for precipitation effects included two-way
summary statistics relating the concurrence of AR and that of
precipitation, per-event averaged precipitation rate, and per-event
precipitation accumulation. We found that an optimal AR index for
precipitation depends on the types of impact to be addressed, associated
physical mechanisms in the affected regions, timing, and duration. In
West Coast and Midwest, IWV-based AR indices identified the most
abundant AR event time steps, most accurately associated AR to days with
precipitation, and represented the presence of precipitation the best.
With a lower climatological threshold, they detected the most
accumulated precipitation with the longest event duration. Longer
duration thresholds also led to higher accumulated precipitation,
holding other factors constant. IWV-based indices are the overall choice
for Midwest ARs under varying seasonal precipitation drivers. IVT-based
indices suitably capture the accumulation of intense orographic
precipitation on the West Coast. Indices combining IVT and IWV identify
the fewest, shortest, but most intense AR precipitation episodes.