Abstract
Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWSs) aim to spatially monitor and
forecast risk of water shortage to inform early, risk-mitigating
interventions. However, due to the scarcity of in-situ monitoring in
groundwater-dependent arid zones, spatial drought exposure is inferred
using maps of satellite-based indicators such as rainfall anomalies,
soil moisture and vegetation indices. On the local scale, these
coarse-resolution proxy indicators provide a poor inference of
groundwater availability. The improving affordability and technical
capability of modern sensors significantly increases the feasibility of
taking direct groundwater level measurements in data-scarce, arid
regions on a larger scale. Here, we assess the potential of in-situ
monitoring to provide a localized index of hydrological drought in
Somaliland. We find that calibrating a lumped groundwater model with a
short time series of high-frequency groundwater level observations
substantially improves the quantification of local water availability
when compared to satellite-based indices over the same validation
period. By varying the calibration length between 1-30 weeks, we find
that data collection beyond 5 weeks adds little to model calibration at
all three wells. This suggests that a short monitoring campaign is
suitable to improve estimations of local water availability during
drought, and provide superior performance compared to regional-scale
satellite-based indicators. A short calibration period has practical
advantages, as it allows for the relocation of sensors and rapid
characterization of a large number of wells. A monitoring system with
this contextualized, local information can support earlier financing and
better targeting of early actions than regional DEWSs.