Temperature and water vapor are known to fluctuate on multiple scales. In this study 27 years of airborne measurements of temperature and relative humidity from IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) are used to parameterize the distribution of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The parameterization is designed to simulate water vapor fluctuations within gridboxes of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) with typical size of a few tens to a few hundreds kilometers. The distributions currently used in such models are often not supported by observations at high altitude. More sophisticated distributions are key to represent ice supersaturation, a physical phenomenon that plays a major role in the formation of natural cirrus and contrail cirrus. Here the observed distributions are fitted with a beta law whose parameters are adjusted from the gridbox mean variables. More specifically the standard deviation and skewness of the distributions are expressed as empirical functions of the average temperature and specific humidity, two typical prognostic variables of AGCMs. Thus, the distribution of water vapor is fully parameterized for a use in these models. The new parameterization simulates the observed distributions with a determination coefficient always greater than 0.917, with a mean value of 0.997. Moreover, the ice supersaturation fraction in a model gridbox is well simulated with a determination coefficient of 0.983. The parameterization is robust to a selection of various geographical subsets of data and to gridbox sizes varying between 25 to 300 km.

There is a substantial gap between the current emissions of greenhouse gases and levels required for achieving the 2 and 1.5 °C temperature targets of the Paris Agreement. Understanding the implications of a temperature overshoot is thus an increasingly relevant research topic. Here we explore the carbon cycle feedbacks over land and ocean in the SSP5-3.4-OS overshoot scenario by using an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 Earth system models. Models show that after the CO2 concentration and air temperature peaks, land and ocean are decreasing carbon sinks from the 2040s and become sources for a limited time in the 22nd century. The decrease in the carbon uptake precedes the CO2 concentration peak. The early peak of ocean uptake stems from its dependency on the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. The early peak of the land uptake occurs due to a larger increase in ecosystem respiration than the increase in gross primary production, as well as due to a concomitant increase in land-use change emissions primarily attributed to the wide implementation of biofuel croplands. The carbon cycle feedback parameters amplify after the CO2 concentration and temperature peaks due to inertia of the Earth system so that land and ocean absorb more carbon per unit change in the atmospheric CO2 change (stronger negative feedback) and lose more carbon per unit temperature change (stronger positive feedback) compared to if the feedbacks stayed unchanged. The increased negative CO2 feedback outperforms the increased positive climate feedback. This feature should be investigated under other scenarios.

Part of the economic recovery plans implemented by governments following COVID-19 is directed towards the energy transition. To understand the potential effects of these post-COVID green recovery packages on reductions of greenhouse gases emissions, we investigated three different approaches. Firstly, we analysed simulation results of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to infer the change in CO2 intensity of GDP that could result from post-COVID low-carbon investment plans. Secondly, we investigated the scenarios provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) based on a bottom-up energy system model. By combining the two approaches, we found that green recovery packages implemented and planned globally can lead to an emission reduction of merely 1%-6% from 2030 baseline levels at most. Thirdly, we looked into the results of the Adaptative Regional Input-Output model, which simulates the dynamic effects of economic crisis and fiscal stimuli through supply chains following labour shortage. The third approach shows that the increase of activity driven by fiscal stimuli leads to a rebound of CO2 emissions even if they do not target carbon-intensive sectors. We conclude that green recovery packages targeting low-carbon technologies have a limited impact on near-term CO2 emissions and that demand-side incentives, as well as other policy efforts to disincentivise the use of fossil fuels, are also important for scaling up climate mitigation.