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A Global Spatial-Temporal Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution
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  • Andrew Larkin,
  • Anenberg Anenberg,
  • Daniel L Goldberg,
  • Arash Mohegh,
  • Michael Brauer,
  • Perry Hystad
Andrew Larkin
Oregon State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Daniel L Goldberg
George Washington University
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Arash Mohegh
George Washington University
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Michael Brauer
University of Washington
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Perry Hystad
Oregon State University
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Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently reduced its health guideline for Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) to annual and 24-hr means of 10 µg/m 3 (5.3 ppb) and 25 µg/m 3 (13.3 ppb). NO 2 is a criteria air pollutant that varies spatiotemporally at fine resolutions due to its relatively short lifetime (~hours) and current models have limited ability to capture this variation. To advance global exposure estimates, we created a daily global land use regression (LUR) model with 50 x 50 m 2 spatial resolution using 5.7 million daily air monitor averages collected from 8,250 monitor locations. In cross-validation, the model captured 47%, 59%, and 63% of daily, monthly, and annual global NO 2 variation. Daily, monthly, and annual root mean square error were 6.8, 5.0, and 4.4 ppb and absolute bias were 46%, 30%, and 21%, respectively. The final model has 11 variables, including road density and built environments with fine (30 m or less) spatial resolution and meteorological and satellite data with daily temporal resolution. Major roads and satellite-based estimates of NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors in all regions. Daily model estimates from 2005-2019 are available 1 and can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without NO 2 monitoring. Short synopsis: This is the first global NO 2 model with daily temporal and 50m spatial resolution, valuable for capturing NO 2 variation.