A Global Spatial-Temporal Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide
Air Pollution
Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) recently reduced its health
guideline for Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) to annual and 24-hr means of 10
µg/m 3 (5.3 ppb) and 25 µg/m 3 (13.3 ppb). NO 2 is a criteria air
pollutant that varies spatiotemporally at fine resolutions due to its
relatively short lifetime (~hours) and current models
have limited ability to capture this variation. To advance global
exposure estimates, we created a daily global land use regression (LUR)
model with 50 x 50 m 2 spatial resolution using 5.7 million daily air
monitor averages collected from 8,250 monitor locations. In
cross-validation, the model captured 47%, 59%, and 63% of daily,
monthly, and annual global NO 2 variation. Daily, monthly, and annual
root mean square error were 6.8, 5.0, and 4.4 ppb and absolute bias were
46%, 30%, and 21%, respectively. The final model has 11 variables,
including road density and built environments with fine (30 m or less)
spatial resolution and meteorological and satellite data with daily
temporal resolution. Major roads and satellite-based estimates of NO 2
were consistently the strongest predictors in all regions. Daily model
estimates from 2005-2019 are available 1 and can be used for global risk
assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without NO 2
monitoring. Short synopsis: This is the first global NO 2 model with
daily temporal and 50m spatial resolution, valuable for capturing NO 2
variation.