Skillful multi-month predictions of ecosystem stressors in the surface
and subsurface ocean
Abstract
Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving
rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which
increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long-term trends, short
term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for
marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need
for predictions of marine ecosystems on monthly, seasonal, and
multi-month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability
to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and
biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have
investigated forecasts of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed
the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth
System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along
with novel observation-based biogeochemical and physical products to
quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved
oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE
demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple
months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms
persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts,
with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska
and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface
DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine
ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision
making.