Although many suggest that future diets should include more plant-based proteins, animal-sourced foods are unlikely to completely disappear from our diet. Grasslands yield a notable part of the world’s animal protein production, but thus far, there is no global insight into the relationship between current livestock stocking densities and the availability of grassland forage resources. This inhibits acting upon concerns over the negative effects of overgrazing in some areas and utilising the potential for increasing production in others. Previous research has examined the potential of sustainable grazing but lacks generic and observation-based methods needed to fully understand the opportunities and threats of grazing. Here we provide a novel framework and method to estimate global livestock carrying capacity and relative stocking density, i.e. the reported livestock distribution relative to the estimated carrying capacity. We first estimate the aboveground biomass that is available for grazers on grasslands and savannas based on the MODIS Net Primary Production (NPP) approach on a global scale. This information is then used to calculate reasonable livestock carrying capacities, using slopes, forest cover and animal forage requirements as restrictions. With this approach, we found that stocking rates exceed the forage provided by grasslands in northwestern Europe, midwestern United States, southern China and the African Sahel. In this study, we provide the highest resolution global datasets to date. Our results have implications for prospective global food system modelling as well as national agricultural and environmental policies. These maps and findings can assist with conservation efforts to reduce land degradation associated with overgrazing and help identify undergrazed areas for targeted sustainable intensification efforts.

The livestock sector is the largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions, and is projected to increase in the future with increased demand for livestock products. Here, we compare livestock methane emissions and emission intensities, defined by the amount of methane emitted per unit of animal proteins, estimated by different methodologies, and identify mitigation potentials in different regions of the world based on possible future projections. We show that emission intensity decreased for most livestock categories globally during 2000-2018, due to an increasing protein-production efficiency, and the IPCC Tier 2 method should be used for capturing the temporal changes in the emission intensities. We further show that efforts on the demand-side to promote balanced, healthy and environmentally-sustainable diets in most countries will not be sufficient to mitigate livestock methane emissions without parallel efforts to improve production efficiency. The latter efforts have much greater mitigating effects than demand-side efforts, and hence should be prioritized in a few developing countries that contribute most of the mitigation potential.