Hourly air temperature forecasting by downscaling WRF simulations over
complex topography: A case study of Chongli District in Hebei Province,
China
Abstract
Accurate and high-resolution air temperature prediction is important in
many different applications. Hourly air temperature forecasting in
mountainous areas is necessary and important because mountainous areas
are becoming increasingly important areas of human activities. At
present, scientists successfully employ numerical weather prediction
(NWP) models, such as the WRF model, to achieve reliable forecasts.
However, air temperature forecasting and modeling over complex
geographical zones are difficult tasks. The WRF model is a mesoscale
model and does not adequately account for the influence of terrain on
the air temperature. It is important to downscale larger-scale models to
a much finer scale. In this paper, a statistical temperature downscaling
method based on geographically weighted regression (GWR) and diurnal
temperature cycle (DTC) models is proposed. A statistical downscaling
scheme is designed to forecast the hourly air temperature, at a 30-m
spatial resolution, up to 24 h in advance. Compared to WRF simulations,
RMSE of the combined downscaling model decreased 1.01 ℃ at the
automatic weather station level and 0.80 ℃ at the spatial level, and MAE
decreased by 0.81 ℃ and 0.69 ℃, respectively, at these two levels. The
results reveal that the combined downscaling model performs very well in
correcting and downscaling the air temperature in WRF simulations in
mountainous areas.