Sensitivity based soil moisture assimilation for improved streamflow
forecast using a novel Forward Sensitivity Method (FSM) approach
Abstract
The need for and the use of different data assimilation techniques to
improve the quality of streamflow forecast is now well established. In
this paper, the goal is to demonstrate the power of a new class of
methods known as the Forward Sensitivity Method (FSM) which is based on
the temporal evolution of model sensitivities with respect to the
control variables consisting of initial conditions and parameters. FSM
operates in two phases: The first phase provides a simple algorithm for
placing observations at or near where the square of forward
sensitivities attains their maximum values. Using only this selected
subset of observations in a weighted least squares method, the second
phase then provides an estimate of the unknown elements of the control
variables. In this paper, FSM based assimilation is applied to a simple
class of two parameter model in a medium-sized agriculture dominant
watershed lying in the Krishna River Basin, India. Four assimilation
scenarios were tested to determine the effect of assimilating only
sensitive observations as well as the impact of temporally evolving
initial condition sensitivity. Sensitivity results showed that
observations during the monsoon time alone are enough for assimilation
purposes, which has helped in reducing the computational time greatly.
Assimilation and forecast results also indicated that the scenarios
which assimilated only sensitive observations are better in estimating
daily streamflow. From the obtained results, it is concluded that FSM
based assimilation has significant potential to improve the streamflow
simulations, especially in places where data availability remains a
major challenge.