The Prediction Method of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Based on Deep
Learning
Abstract
A prediction algorithm of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change based
on deep learning is proposed by exploring the distribution
characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic elements. we adopted three
dimensional convolutional neural network (3D-CNN), which is part of a
most advanced approach, to learn the implicit correlation between the
spatial distribution characteristics of three dimensional environmental
variables and TC intensity change. Image processing technology is also
used to enhance the data of a small number of TC samples to generate the
train set. On the basis of TC instantaneous three dimensional state and
the influence of sea surface temperature, we extract the spatial hybrid
features from TC image patterns to predict 24 h intensity change.
Experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of TC
intensity change prediction and the accuracy of strengthening and
weakening classification are both have a significant improvement