We use a mechanical model in the context of Bayesian inference to constrain the relative contribution of driving and resistive regional forces to the observed surface deformation. The finite element model straddles the Nubian-Eurasia plate boundary, is viscoelastic, and has fault zones representing regional active faults. Deformation is driven by velocities of surrounding plates and by lateral variations in gravitational potential energy in all models. The magnitudes of slab pull and trench suction at subduction zones, and of active asthenospheric convection are search parameters. Velocities of our median model fit the observations very well. Slip directions agree with focal mechanisms on most model fault zones. Slip rakes and rates agree only partly with results from previous block modeling studies. We find that significant trench suction forces are required on all trenches. Slab pull is irrelevant, and convective shear tractions have a small imprint on the observed deformation of the overriding plate. The average viscosity of the Eurasian lithosphere is 1.5(±0.5)x1022 Pa.s. Resistive shear traction rates are small along all plate boundary segments, except the Kephalonia fault zone. Shear traction rates are significant along all intraplate fault zones, except the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault zone. We propose a novel way to estimate the rate at which fault zones accumulate slip deficit. We find that slip deficit rates on model faults range between 1.2 and 4.5 mm/yr.

Greater landward velocities were recorded after 6 megathrust earthquakes in subduction zone regions adjacent to the ruptured portion. Previous explanations invoked either increased slip deficit accumulation or plate bending during postseismic relaxation, with different implications for seismic hazard. We investigate whether bending can be expected to reproduce this observed enhanced landward motion (ELM). We use 3D quasi-dynamic finite element models with periodic earthquakes. We find that afterslip downdip of the brittle megathrust exclusively produces enhanced trenchward surface motion in the overriding plate. Viscous relaxation produces ELM when a depth limit is imposed on afterslip. This landward motion results primarily from in-plane elastic bending of the overriding plate due to trenchward viscous flow in the mantle wedge near the rupture. Modeled ELM is, however, incompatible with the observations, which are an order of magnitude greater and last longer after the earthquake. Varying mantle viscosity, plate elasticity, maximum afterslip depth, earthquake size, and megathrust locking outside of the rupture does not significantly change this conclusion. The observed ELM consequently appears to reflect faster slip deficit accumulation, implying a greater seismic hazard in lateral segments of the subduction zone.

A devastating tsunami struck Palu Bay in the wake of the 28 September 2018 M$_{\mathrm{w}}=7.5$ Palu earthquake (Sulawesi, Indonesia). With a predominantly strike-slip mechanism, the question remains whether this unexpected tsunami was generated by the earthquake itself, or rather by earthquake-induced landslides. In this study we examine the tsunami potential of the co-seismic deformation. To this end, we present a novel geodetic dataset of GPS and multiple SAR-derived displacement fields to estimate a 3D co-seismic surface deformation field. The data reveal a number of fault bends, conforming to our interpretation of the tectonic setting as a transtensional basin. Using a Bayesian framework, we provide robust finite fault solutions of the co-seismic slip distribution, incorporating several scenarios of tectonically feasible fault orientations below the bay. These finite fault scenarios involve large co-seismic uplift (~2 m) below the bay due to thrusting on a restraining fault bend that connects the offshore continuation of two parallel onshore fault segments. With the co-seismic displacement estimates as input we simulate a number of tsunami cases. For most locations for which video-derived tsunami waveforms are available our models provide a qualitative fit to leading wave arrival times and polarity. The modeled tsunamis explain most of the observed runup. We conclude that co-seismic deformation was the main driver behind the tsunami that followed the Palu earthquake. Our unique geodetic dataset constrains vertical motions of the sea floor, and sheds new light on the tsunamigenesis of strike-slip faults in transtensional basins.

Most of the seismic moment release of the complex earthquake sequence beneath the South Sandwich Islands occurred on the central part of the SS megathrust. Significant aftershock activity indicates that the central and southern megathrust was subsequently activated, i.e., where young South America lithosphere is subducted. Seismic activity thus seems to have been restricted by the lateral termination in the south of the SS Trench.   Relatively little energy release occurred on the northern part of the megathrust. It was hypothesized by Govers and Wortel (2005) that here the South America slab breaks away from the surface part of the plate at the active STEP. Geochemical observations and earthquake P-axes orientations do not seem to agree with the hypothesis and we investigate the cause.   We show results of new physical analog lab models that aim to elucidate what controls the geometry of the lithospheric STEP Fault. We study lithospheric tearing in the process of STEP evolution, which is dynamically driven by the buoyancy of the subducting slab. In our experiments, the lithosphere as well as asthenosphere are viscoelastic media in a free subduction setup. A stress-dependent rheology plays a major role in localization of strain in tearing processes of lithosphere such as slab break-off. The results show that the highly curved northern plate boundary is a STEP Fault following from lithospheric tearing at a depth of ~100km. This is a modification of the original STEP model of Govers and Wortel (2005). This is consistent with available observations along the northern Sandwich plate boundary, and likely exists in other STEP regions. The region’s largest recorded event, the 1929 Mw 8.3 earthquake, may reflect horizontal extension perpendicular to the STEP fault, which is also expected based on our experiments.

Plate boundary deformation zones represent a challenge in terms of understanding their underlying geodynamic drivers. Active deformation is well constrained by GNSS observations in the SW Balkans, Greece and W Turkey, and is characterized by variable extension and strike slip in an overall context of slow convergence of the Nubia plate relative to stable Eurasia. Diverse, and all potentially viable, forces have been proposed as the cause of the observed surface deformation, e.g., asthenospheric flow, horizontal gravitational stresses (HGSs) from lateral variations in gravitational potential energy, and rollback of the Hellenic slab. We use Bayesian inference to constrain the relative contribution of the proposed driving and resistive regional forces. Our models are spherical 2D finite element models representing vertical lithospheric averages. In addition to regional plate boundaries, the models include well-constrained fault zones like north and south branches of the North Anatolian Fault, Gulf of Corinth and faults bounding the Menderes Massif. Boundary conditions represent geodynamic processes: (1) far-field relative plate motions (2) resistive fault tractions (3) HGSs mainly from lateral variations in topography and Moho topology (4) slab pull and trench suction at subduction zones. The magnitude of each of these is a parameter in a Bayesian analysis of the models in the context of horizontal GNSS velocities. The search yields a probability distribution over all parameters, allowing us to determine mean/median parameter values, robustly estimate parameter uncertainties, and identify tradeoffs. Significant trench suction forces from the Hellenic slab act on the overriding Aegean Sea, including along the Pliny-Strabo STEP Fault. Resistive tractions on most plate boundaries and faults are low. The best-fitting models compare well with paleomagnetic rotations and fault slip rates from previous studies.