Abstract
Surface meteorological conditions in the midlatitudes are embedded
within and affected by synoptic-scale systems, including the movement
and persistence of air masses (AMs). Changes in the frequencies of
different AMs over the past several decades could potentially have large
effects on ecosystems: each organism is exposed to the synergistic
effects of the entire suite of atmospheric variables acting upon it –
an inherently multivariate environment – which is best captured using
AMs. Utilizing a global-scale AM classification system and a global
network of tree-ring widths, we investigate how variation in AM
frequency impacts tree growth at over 900 locations. We find that AM
frequencies are well-correlated with tree growth, especially in the
12-month period from July in the year prior to growth through June in
the year of growth. The most important AMs are Dry-Warm and Humid-Cool
AMs, which exhibit average correlations of ρ=-0.4 and ρ=+0.4 with global
tree growth, respectively, among commonly sampled tree species, with
correlations at some sites exceeding ρ=+/-0.8 in some seasons. Compared
to empirical models based solely on temperature and precipitation,
modeling using only AM frequencies proved superior at nearly 60% of the
sites and for over 80% of the well-sampled (n≥10) species. These
results should provide a foundation for using AMs to improve forecasts
of tree growth, tree stress and wildfire potential. Long-term
reconstructions of AM frequencies back several centuries may also be
feasible using tree-ring data, which will help contextualize and
temporally extend multivariate perspectives of climate change that
utilize such air masses.