Improving soil carbon estimates by linking conceptual pools against
measurable carbon fractions in the DAYCENT Model Version 4.5
Abstract
Terrestrial soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics play an important but
uncertain role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Current modeling efforts
to quantify SOC dynamics in response to global environmental changes do
not accurately represent the size, distribution and flux of C from the
soil. Here, we modified the Daily Century (DAYCENT) biogeochemical model
by parameterizing conceptual SOC pools with C fraction data, followed by
historical and future simulations of SOC dynamics. Results showed that
simulations using modified DAYCENT (DCmod) led to better initialization
of SOC stocks and distribution compared to default DAYCENT (DCdef) at
long-term research sites. Regional simulation using DCmod demonstrated
higher SOC stocks for both croplands (34.86 vs 26.17 MgC ha-1) and
grasslands (54.05 vs 40.82 MgC ha-1) compared to DCdef for the
contemporary period (2001-2005 average), which better matched
observationally constrained data-driven maps of current SOC
distributions. Projection of SOC dynamics to land cover change (IPCC AR4
A2 scenario) under IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 climate scenario showed absolute SOC
loss of 8.44 and 10.43 MgC ha-1 for grasslands and croplands,
respectively, using DCmod whereas, SOC losses were 6.55 and 7.85 MgC
ha-1 for grasslands and croplands, respectively, using DCdef. The
projected SOC loss using DCmod was 33% and 29% higher for croplands
and grasslands compared to DCdef. Our modeling study demonstrates that
initializing SOC pools with C fraction data led to more accurate
representation of SOC stocks and individual carbon pool, resulting in
larger absolute and relative SOC losses due to agricultural
intensification in the warming climate.