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Deep Residual Convolutional Neural Network Combining Dropout and Transfer Learning for ENSO Forecasting
  • +3
  • Jie Hu,
  • Bin Weng,
  • Tianqiang Huang,
  • Jianyun Gao,
  • Feng Ye,
  • Lijun You
Jie Hu
College of Mathematics and Informatics, Fujian Normal University, Digital Fujian Institute of Big Data Security Technology, Engineering Technology Research Center for Public Service Big Data Mining and Application of Fujian Province
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Bin Weng
College of Mathematics and Informatics
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Tianqiang Huang
College of Mathematics and Informatics, Fujian Normal University, Digital Fujian Institute of Big Data Security Technology, Engineering Technology Research Center for Public Service Big Data Mining and Application of Fujian Province

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jianyun Gao
Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fujian Institute of Meteorological Sciences
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Feng Ye
College of Mathematics and Informatics, Fujian Normal University, Digital Fujian Institute of Big Data Security Technology, Engineering Technology Research Center for Public Service Big Data Mining and Application of Fujian Province
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Lijun You
Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fujian Meteorological Bureau
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Abstract

To improve EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude and type forecast, we pro-pose a model based on a deep residual convolutional neural network with few parame-ters. We leverage dropout and transfer learning to overcome the challenge of insufficient data in model training process. By applying the dropout technique, the model effectively predicts the Niño3.4 Index at a lead time of 20 months during the 1984-2017 evaluation period, which is three more months than that by the existing optimal model. Moreover, with homogeneous transfer learning this model precisely predicts the Oceanic Niño Index up to 18 months in advance. Using heterogeneous transfer learning this model achieved 83.3% accuracy for forecasting the 12-month-lead EI Niño type. These results suggest that our proposed model can enhance the ENSO prediction performance.
28 Dec 2021Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 48 issue 24. 10.1029/2021GL093531