Deep Residual Convolutional Neural Network Combining Dropout and
Transfer Learning for ENSO Forecasting
Abstract
To improve EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude and type
forecast, we pro-pose a model based on a deep residual convolutional
neural network with few parame-ters. We leverage dropout and transfer
learning to overcome the challenge of insufficient data in model
training process. By applying the dropout technique, the model
effectively predicts the Niño3.4 Index at a lead time of 20 months
during the 1984-2017 evaluation period, which is three more months than
that by the existing optimal model. Moreover, with homogeneous transfer
learning this model precisely predicts the Oceanic Niño Index up to 18
months in advance. Using heterogeneous transfer learning this model
achieved 83.3% accuracy for forecasting the 12-month-lead EI Niño type.
These results suggest that our proposed model can enhance the ENSO
prediction performance.