Machine learning-based modeling of vegetation leaf area index and gross
primary productivity across North America and comparison with a
process-based model
Abstract
Vegetation plays a key role in regulating the material and energy
exchanges among the biosphere, the atmosphere, and the pedosphere.
Modeling and predicting vegetation key variables such as leaf area index
(LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial to understand and
project the processes of vegetation growth in response to climate
change. While a number of studies developed models to simulate
vegetation GPP using satellite-derived LAI, the requirement of
satellite-based model inputs largely limits the predicting power of
these developed models. This study developed the machine learning
models, including both support vector regression (SVR) and random
forests (RF), which are capable of modeling LAI and GPP time series
using only meteorological variables. We first simulated the LAI time
series directly using meteorological variables as inputs to the machine
learning models and then buffered its unrealistic day-to-day
fluctuation, and further modeled the GPP time series using
meteorological variables and modeled LAI time series. We tested our
methods for four main plant functional types across North America and
evaluated the models using both satellite-based and flux tower data. The
results demonstrate that the machine learning models perform well on
simulating the time series of both LAI and GPP. We identified that there
is a need to improve the phenology representation in the Biome-BGC
model. The machine learning models provide an alternative way to predict
time series of LAI and GPP using only meteorological variables across
large geographic regions, and also provide benchmarking accuracies for
future developments of the process-based models.