Evaluation of inverse estimates of North American net ecosystem exchange
of CO2 from different observing systems using ACT-America airborne
observations
Abstract
Quantification of regional terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes is
critical to our understanding of the carbon cycle. We evaluate inverse
estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 fluxes in temperate
North America, and their sensitivity to the observational data used to
drive the inversions. Specifically, we consider the state-of-the-science
CarbonTracker global inversion system, which assimilates (i) in situ
measurements (’IS’), 29 (ii) the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2)
v9 column CO 2 (XCO2) retrievals over land (’LNLG’), (iii) OCO-2 v9 XCO
2 retrievals over ocean (’OG’), and (iv) a combination of all these
observational constraints (’LNLGOGIS’). We use independent CO2
observations from the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America
aircraft mission to evaluate the inversions. We diagnose errors in the
flux estimates using the differences between modeled and observed
biogenic CO2 mole fractions, influence functions from a Lagrangian
transport model, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias metrics. The
IS fluxes have the smallest RMSE among the four products, followed by
LNLG. Both IS and LNLG outperform the OG and LNLGOGIS inversions with
regard to RMSE. Regional errors do not differ markedly across the four
sets of posterior fluxes. The CarbonTracker inversions appear to
overestimate the seasonal cycle of NEE in the Midwest and Western
Canada, and overestimate dormant season NEE across the Central and
Eastern US. The CarbonTracker inversions may overestimate annual NEE in
the Central and Eastern US. The success of the LNLG inversion with
respect to independent observations bodes well for satellite-based
inversions in regions with more limited in situ observing networks.