Vishnu S

and 3 more

Cyclonic low-pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS in high-resolution datasets. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS dataset while minimizing disagreement between four atmospheric reanalyses in a training period. The streamfunction of the 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be the best variable for tracking LPS; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete non-divergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the IMD dataset show a step-like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982 respectively; the 1958-2018 linear trend in JRA-55, however, is smaller than in the IMD dataset and its error bar includes zero. There are more LPS in seasons with above-average monsoon rainfall and also in La Nin ̵̃a years, but few other large-scale modes of interannual climate variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across all reanalyses.

Vishnu S

and 3 more

Synoptic-scale cyclonic vortices produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where these low pressure systems (LPS) are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in the number of those storms in recent decades; their tracking methods, however, seem to have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows, which can produce intense rainfall despite their weak winds. This study presents a fast and objective tracking algorithm that can identify monsoon LPS in high-resolution datasets with a variety of grid structures. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to select a set of atmospheric variables and their corresponding thresholds for optimal tracking of LPS. Approximately 250 combinations of variables and thresholds are used to identify LPS over roughly a decade (the training period) in each of four atmospheric reanalyses, and these combinations are ranked using a skill score that compares the reanalyses with each other and with a preexisting track dataset that was compiled by subjective identification of LPS. This procedure finds the streamfunction of the 850 hPa horizontal wind to be the best variable for tracking LPS. The streamfunction is smoother than the vorticity field and represents the complete non-divergent component of the wind even when the flow is not geostrophic, unlike the geopotential height or sea level pressure. Using this tracking algorithm, LPS statistics are then computed in five reanalysis products that each span at least 40 years, with a primary goal being to determine whether the large decrease in monsoon depressions seen in the India Meteorological Department track dataset since the 1970s can be found in any reanalysis. This trend assessment is particularly relevant for the ERA5 reanalysis, which extends back to 1950 and which contains explicit climate forcings. In addition to secular trends, this study assesses the decadal variation of LPS, as well as interannual changes in LPS activity that are associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.