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Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities -A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA's Black Marble Product Suite
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  • Srija Chakraborty,
  • Tomohiro Oda,
  • Virginia L Kalb,
  • Zhuosen Wang,
  • Miguel O Román
Srija Chakraborty
Earth from Space Institute

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tomohiro Oda
Earth from Space Institute
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Virginia L Kalb
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Zhuosen Wang
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Miguel O Román
Leidos
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Abstract

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA’s Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing datasets. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flaring activities over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. The region was impacted by the winter storm Uri which resulted in a significant reduction of flaring activities followed by a post-storm resumption. Our method is extendible to combustion events, such as biomass and waste burning, and can be scaled globally for transparent emission estimate reporting.