Statistical and Machine Learning Methods Applied to the Prediction of
Different Tropical Rainfall Types
Abstract
We explore the use of three advanced statistical and machine learning
methods (a generalized linear model, random forest, and neural network)
to predict the occurrence and rain rate distribution of three tropical
rain types (deep convective, stratiform, and shallow convective)
observed by the radar onboard the GPM satellite over the West Pacific at
three-hourly, 0.5-degree resolution. Temperature and moisture profiles
from MERRA-2 were used as predictors. All three methods perform
reasonably well at predicting the occurrence and rain rate distribution
of each rain type. However, none of the methods obviously distinguish
themselves from one another and each method still has issues with
predicting rain too often and not fully capturing the high end of the
rain rate distributions, both of which are common problems in climate
models.