Monthly global sea-air CO2 flux estimates from 1998-2020 are produced by extrapolation of surface water fugacity of CO2 (fCO2w) observations using an Extra-trees (ET) machine learning technique. This new product (AOML_ET) is one of the eleven observation-based submissions to the second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) effort. The target variable fCO2w is derived using the predictor variables including date, location, sea surface temperature, mixed layer depth, and chlorophyll-a. A monthly resolved sea-air CO2 flux product on a 1˚ by 1˚ grid is created from this fCO2w product using a bulk flux formulation. Average global sea-air CO2 fluxes from 1998-2020 are -1.7 Pg C yr-1 with a trend of 0.9 Pg C decade-1. The sensitivity to omitting mixed layer depth or chlorophyll-a as predictors is small but changing the target variable from fCO2w to air-water fCO2 difference has a large effect, yielding an average flux of -3.6 Pg C yr-1 and a trend of 0.5 Pg C decade-1. Substituting a spatially resolved marine air CO2 mole fraction product for the commonly used zonally invariant marine boundary layer CO2 product yield greater influx and less outgassing in the Eastern coastal regions of North America and Northern Asia but with no effect on the global fluxes. A comparison of AOML_ET for 2010 with an updated climatology following the methods of Takahashi et al. (2009), that extrapolates the surface CO2 values without predictors, shows overall agreement in global patterns and magnitude.

In the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf, the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River System (MARS) impacts the carbonate system by delivering freshwater with a distinct seasonal pattern in both total alkalinity (Alk) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and promoting biologically-driven changes in DIC through nutrient inputs. However, how and to what degree these processes modulate the interannual variability in calcium carbonate solubility have been poorly documented. Here, we use an ocean-biogeochemical model to investigate the impact of MARS’s discharge and chemistry on interannual anomalies of aragonite saturation state (ΩAr). Based on model results, we show that the enhanced mixing of riverine waters with a low buffer capacity (low Alk-to-DIC ratio) during high-discharge winters promotes a significant ΩAr decline over the inner-shelf. We also show that increased nutrient runoff and vertical stratification during high-discharge summers promotes strong negative anomalies in bottom ΩAr, and less intense but significant positive anomalies in surface ΩAr. Therefore, increased MARS discharge promotes an increased frequency of suboptimal ΩAr levels for nearshore coastal calcifying species. Additional sensitivity experiments further show that reductions in the Alk-to-DIC ratio and nitrate concentration from the MARS significantly modify the simulated ΩAr spatial patterns, weakening the positive surface ΩAr anomalies during high-discharge summers or even producing negative surface ΩAr anomalies. Our findings suggest that riverine water carbonate chemistry is a main driver of interannual variability in ΩAr over river dominated ocean margins.

The oceanic storage of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) that humans have emitted into the atmosphere has been pivotal for counteracting climate change. Yet multi-decadal trends in the ocean interior storage of Cant have not been assessed at global scale. Here, we determine storage changes of Cant by applying the eMLR(C*) regression method to ocean interior observations collected between 1989 and 2020. We find that the global ocean storage of Cant grew by 29 ± 3 Pg C dec-1 and 27 ± 3 Pg C dec-1 (±1σ) from 1994 to 2004 and 2004 to 2014, respectively. Although the two growth rates are not significantly different, they imply a reduction of the oceanic uptake fraction of the anthropogenic emissions from 36 ± 4 % to 27 ± 3 % from the first to the second decade. We attribute this reduction to a decrease of the ocean buffer capacity and changes in ocean circulation. In the Atlantic Ocean, the maximum storage rate shifted from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere, plausibly caused by a weaker formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Waters and an intensified ventilation of mode and intermediate waters in the Southern Hemisphere. Between 1994 and 2004, the oceanic Cant accumulation exceeded the net air-sea flux by 8 ± 4 Pg C dec-1, suggesting a loss of natural carbon from the ocean during this decade. Our results reveal a substantial sensitivity of the ocean carbon sink to climate variability and change.

Strong winds in Southern Ocean storms drive air-sea carbon and heat fluxes. These fluxes are integral to the global climate system and the wind speeds that drive them are increasing. The current scatterometer constellation measuring vector winds remotely undersamples these storms and the higher winds within them, leading to potentially large biases in Southern Ocean wind reanalyses and the fluxes that derive from them. This observing system design study addresses these issues in two ways. First, we describe an addition to the scatterometer constellation, called Southern Ocean Storms -- Zephyr, to increase the frequency of independent observations, better constraining high winds. Second, we show that potential reanalysis wind biases over the Southern Ocean lead to uncertainty over the sign of the net winter carbon flux. More frequent independent observations per day will capture these higher winds and reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the global carbon and heat budgets.

Significant advancements have been made over the past four decades in understanding and quantifying the stocks and flows of carbon between the reservoirs. However, knowledge of the complex oceanic processes influencing the carbon cycle has been largely compartmentalized into physico-chemical and biological studies. The connections between coastal and open-ocean carbon processes have also been understudied. To fully appreciate the ocean carbon cycle, and its anticipated changes in the future, a holistic and integrated approach to ocean carbon cycle research is needed. In particular, a greater quantitative understanding of how biological processes interact with the physical and chemical drivers in the open ocean and in coastal waters is needed. Moreover, the carbon cycle needs to be understood in the current socio-economic context and large anticipated changes in the next decades. To address these issues, the Integrated Ocean Carbon Research (IOC-R), a formal IOC working group, was formed in 2018. The working group is a response to the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030, “the Decade”. The IOC-R will contribute to the science elements of an overarching Implementation Plan for the Decade. The Implementation Plan is a high-level framework to guide actions by which ocean science can more effectively deliver its contribution to achieving the societal outcomes outlined for the Decade. The IOC-R focusses the ocean carbon cycle component of the Implementation Plan by addressing key issues in ocean carbon research through a combined strategy of research and observational goals. The research will be framed by four key questions that were formulated at the inaugural Expert Workshop on Integrated Ocean Carbon Research at the IOC-UNESCO Headquarters in Paris, France on Oct. 28-30, 2019: 1) Will the ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) continue as primarily an abiotic process? 2) What is the role of biology in the ocean carbon cycle? 3) What are the exchanges of carbon between the land-ocean continuum and how are they evolving over time? 4) How are humans altering the ocean carbon cycle, and what are the feedbacks?

Ocean acidification (OA) progression is affected by multiple factors, such as ocean warming, biological production, and runoff. Here we used an ocean-biogeochemical model to assess the impact of river runoff and climate variability on the spatiotemporal patterns of OA in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) during 1981-2014. The model showed the expected pH and aragonite saturation state (ΩAr) decline, due to the increase in anthropogenic carbon, with trends close to values reported for the Subtropical North Atlantic. However, significant departures from the basin-averaged pattern were obtained in part of the northern GoM shelf, where pH and ΩAr increased. Model sensitivity analyses showed that OA progression was counteracted by enhanced alkalinity from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River System. Our findings highlight that river alkalinity is a key driver of carbon system variability in river-dominated ocean margins and emphasize the need to quantify riverine chemistry to properly assess acidification in coastal waters.