On optimum solar wind - magnetosphere coupling functions for transpolar
voltage and planetary geomagnetic activity
Abstract
Using 65,133 hourly averages of transpolar voltage Φ(PC) from
observations made over 25 years by the SuperDARN radars, with
simultaneous SML and interpolated am geomagnetic indices, we study their
optimum interplanetary coupling functions. We find lags of 18, 31 and 45
min. for Φ_{PC}, am and SML respectively, and fit using a general
coupling function with three free fit exponents. To converge to a fit,
we need to average interplanetary parameters and then apply the exponent
which is a widely-used approximation: we show how and why this is valid
for all interplanetary parameters, except the factor quantifying the
effect of the clock angle of the interplanetary magnetic field,
sin^(d)(θ/2), which must be computed at high time resolution and then
averaged. We demonstrate the effect of the exponent d on the
distribution, and hence weighting, of samples and show d is best
determined from the requirement that the coupling function is a linear
predictor, which yields d of 2.50+/-0.10, 3.00+/-0.22 and 5.23+/-0.48
for Φ_{PC}, am and SML. To check for overfitting, fits are made to
half the available data and tested against the other half. Ensembles of
1000 fits are used to study the effect of the number of samples on the
distribution of errors in individual fits and on systematic biases in
the ensemble means. We find only a weak dependence of solar wind density
for Φ_{PC} and SML but a significant one for am. The optimum coupling
functions are shown to be significantly different for Φ_{PC}, am and
SML.