Abstract
A simple statistical test is used in cyclostratigraphy to discover
candidate orbital frequencies in power spectra of climate proxy
data-series. In published studies at least, this test never fails to
find multiple frequencies, at high levels of statistical significance
(e.g. p<0.01). However, the same method finds similarly high
statistical significance at similar numbers of frequencies in random,
simulated datasets. The problem lies with the standardised application
of the test, which is linked to MTM spectral analysis in a one-step
procedure that is readily accessible through specialist software
packages. This procedure presents confidence limits as if they were
context-free, but statistical tests are necessarily tied to specific
(null) hypotheses. The test as used in cyclostratigraphy is calibrated
for application at a single frequency, but it is routinely used as if
applicable at all frequencies, a practice that invokes the statistical
multiple comparisons problem and which largely explains the inadvertent
conversion of noise to signal when applied to random datasets. This
general problem is addressed here with reference to a specific recently
published case.