Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate
models: validation, projected changes, and methodological challenges
Abstract
In the coming decades, the frequency of coastal flooding will increase
due to sea-level rise and changes in climate extremes. We force the
Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) with a climate model ensemble from
the CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) to
produce global projections of extreme sea levels (defined as tides and
storm surge) from 1950 to 2050. This is the first time that an ensemble
of global ~25km resolution climate models is used for
this purpose, which increases the credibility of projected storm surges.
Here we validate the historical simulations (1985-2014) against the ERA5
climate reanalysis. The overall performance of the HighResMIP ensemble
is good with mean bias smaller than 0.1 m. However, there is a strong
large-scale spatial bias. Future projections for the high emission
SSP5-8.5 scenario indicate changes up to 0.1 m or 20% in 10-year return
period surge level from 1951-1980 to 2021-2050. Increases are seen in
parts of the coastline of the Caribbean, Madagascar and Mozambique,
Alaska, and northern Australia, whereas the Mediterranean region may see
a decrease. The full dataset underlying this analysis, including
timeseries and statistics, is openly available on the Climate Data Store
and can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts
under future climate change.