Abstract
Extreme temperatures have warmed substantially over recent decades and
are projected to continue warming in response to future climate change.
Warming of extreme temperatures is amplified over land where the impacts
on human health, wildfire risk and food production are most severe.
Using simulations with climate models, I show that hot days over
tropical land warm substantially more than the average day. For example,
warming of the hottest 1% of land days is 24% larger than the
time-mean warming averaged across models. The climate-change response of
extreme temperatures over tropical land is interpreted using a theory
based on atmospheric dynamics. According to the theory, warming is
amplified for hot land days because those days are dry: I term this the
“drier get hotter” mechanism. Changes in near-surface relative
humidity further increase tropical land warming , with decreases in land
relative humidity particularly important. The theory advances physical
understanding of the tropical climate and highlights land-surface
dryness as a key factor determining how extreme temperatures will
respond to future climate change.