The usefulness of satellite multisensor precipitation products such as NASA’s 30-minute, 0.1° Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG) is hindered by their associated errors. Reliable estimates of uncertainty would mitigate this limitation, especially in near-real time. Creating such estimates is challenging, however, due both to the complex discrete-continuous nature of satellite precipitation errors and to the lack of “ground truth” data precisely in the places—including complex terrain and developing countries—that could benefit most from satellite precipitation estimates. In this work, we use swath-based precipitation products from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) as an alternative to ground-based observations to facilitate IMERG uncertainty estimation. We compare the suitability of two DPR derived products, 2ADPR and 2BCMB, against higher-fidelity Ground Validation Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS) ground reference data over the contiguous United States. 2BCMB is selected to train mixed discrete-continuous error models based on Censored Shifted Gamma Distributions. Uncertainty estimates from these error models are compared against alternative models trained on GV-MRMS. Using information from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, we also demonstrate how IMERG uncertainty estimates can be further constrained using additional precipitation-related predictors. Though several critical issues remain unresolved, the proposed method shows promise for yielding robust uncertainty estimates in near-real time for IMERG and other similar precipitation products at their native resolution across the entire globe.

Roads can have a significant impact on the frequency of mass wasting events in mountainous areas. However, characterizing the extent and pervasiveness of landslides over time rarely been documented due to limitations in available data sources to consistently map such events. We monitored the evolution of a road network and assessed its effect on slope stability for a ten year window in Arhavi, Turkey. The main road construction projects run in the area are associated with a hydroelectric power plant as well as other road extension works and are clearly associated with the vast majority (90.1%) of mass movements in the area. We also notice that the overall number and size of the landslides are much larger than in the naturally-occurring comparison area. This marks a strong and negative effect of human activities on the natural course of earth surface processes. Our findings show that the damage generated by the road construction is compatible with the possible effect of a theoretical earthquake with a magnitude greater than Mw=6.0. Overall, better co- and post-construction conditions should be ensured during and after road works to mitigate the risk to local communities. We also notice a significant variation in sediment transport as a result of road construction. As a result, our study fits in the big picture of Anthropocene related changes and specifically points out at problems in mountainous areas that could undoubtedly be better managed to reduce the risk to local communities.

The usefulness of satellite multi-sensor precipitation (SMP) and other satellite-informed precipitation products in water resources modeling can be hindered by substantial errors which vary considerably with spatiotemporal scale. One approach to cope with these errors is by combining SMPs with ensemble generation methods, such that each ensemble member reflects one plausible realization of the true—but unknown—precipitation. This requires replicating the spatiotemporal autocorrelation structure of SMP errors. The climatology of this structure is unknown for most locations due to a lack of ground reference observations, while the unique anisotropy and nonstationarity within any particular precipitation system limit the relevance of this climataology to the depiction of error in individual storm systems. Characterizing and simulating this autocorrelation across spatiotemporal scales has thus been called a grand challenge within the precipitation community. We introduce the Space-Time Rainfall Error and Autocorrelation Model (STREAM), which combines anisotropic and nonstationary SMP spatiotemporal correlation structures with a pixel-scale precipitation error model to stochastically generate ensemble precipitation fields that resemble “ground truth” precipitation. We generate STREAM precipitation ensembles at high resolution (1-hour, 0.1˚) with minimal reliance on ground-reference data, and evaluate these ensembles at multiple scales. STREAM ensembles consistently “bracket” ground-truth observations and replicate the autocorrelation structure of ground-truth precipitation fields. STREAM is compatible with pixel-scale error/uncertainty formulations beyond those presented here, and could be applied globally to other precipitation sources such as numerical weather predictions or “blended” products. In combination with recent work in SMP uncertainty characterization, STREAM could be run without any ground data.