Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with
Future Global Warming
Abstract
Understanding the response of extreme precipitation (EP) at a city scale
to global warming is critical to protect a city from the risks of urban
flooding under climate change. Yet, current knowledge on this issue is
limited. Here, focusing on an urban agglomeration in the tropics,
Singapore, we reveal that future global warming enhances both frequency
and intensity of EP, based on simulations with a state-of-the-art
convection-permitting regional climate model. EP intensification can
reach maximum “super” Clausius-Clapeyron ( +7% per K warming) rate,
consistently for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5
and 4.5. The intensification is lower for moderate and light
precipitation, implying a situation of “wet gets wetter and dry remains
dry”. EP enhancement is attributed to the increased atmospheric
moisture and, more importantly, the enhanced lifting force, which
directly strengthens the precipitation-making processes.