The ephemeral and elusive ocean carbon response to COVID-related
emissions reductions
Abstract
The decline in global emissions of carbon dioxide due to the COVID-19
pandemic provides a unique opportunity to investigate the sensitivity of
the global carbon cycle and climate system to emissions reductions.
Recent efforts to study the response to these emissions declines has not
addressed their impact on the ocean, yet ocean carbon absorption is
particularly susceptible to changing atmospheric carbon concentrations.
Here, we use ensembles of simulations conducted with an Earth system
model to explore the potential detection of COVID-related emissions
reductions in the partial pressure difference in carbon dioxide between
the surface ocean and overlying atmosphere (ΔpCO2), a
quantity that is regularly measured. We find a unique fingerprint in
global-scale ΔpCO2 that is attributable to COVID and
potentially detectable in observations, but only with much larger
emissions reductions than those that have been observed to date.