Neural Decision Tree: A New Tool for Building Forecast Models for
Plasmasphere Dynamics
Abstract
The Neural Decision Tree (NDT) is a hybrid supervised machine-learning
algorithm that combines the self-limiting property of a decision tree
(CART) algorithm with the artificial neural network (ANN). We
demonstrate the use of NDT for a regression problem of building a
prediction model for the plasmasphere electron density with solar and
geomagnetic measurements as inputs. Our work replicates the work by
Zhelavskaya et al. reported in their 2017 article to show that NDT makes
available sophisticated network layout for building a predictive model,
thus taking advantage of the deep-learning potential of the neural
network. We also demonstrate that with the ability to automatically
select an appropriate network layout, as well as, effective
initialization, the NDT algorithm allows research scientists in space
weather to focus more of their attention on physically and statistically
relevant aspects of using machine-learning techniques. In fact, our
example highlights the fact that the basic assumptions of standard
supervise machine-learning problems are often unsatisfied in real-world
space weather applications. Greater attention to these fundamental
issues may create significantly different solutions to space weather
forecast problems.