Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Abstract
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained
from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project
greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we
use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple
ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project
for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at
2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls
within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly
increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in
higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6
forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall
counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.