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Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
  • +61
  • Antony J Payne,
  • Sophie Nowicki,
  • Ayako Abe-Ouchi,
  • Cécile Agosta,
  • Patrick M. Alexander,
  • Torsten Albrecht,
  • Xylar S Asay-Davis,
  • Andy Aschwanden,
  • Alice Barthel,
  • Thomas J. Bracegirdle,
  • Reinhard Calov,
  • Christopher Chambers,
  • Youngmin Choi,
  • Richard I. Cullather,
  • Joshua K Cuzzone,
  • Christophe dumas,
  • Tamsin Edwards,
  • Denis Felikson,
  • Xavier Fettweis,
  • Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi,
  • Heiko Goelzer,
  • Rupert Gladstone,
  • Nicholas R. Golledge,
  • Jonathan M. Gregory,
  • Ralf Greve,
  • Tore Hattermann,
  • Matthew J. Hoffman,
  • Angelika Humbert,
  • Philippe Huybrechts,
  • Nicolas C Jourdain,
  • Thomas Kleiner,
  • Peter Kuipers Munneke,
  • Eric Yves Larour,
  • Sebastien Le clec'h,
  • Victoria Lee,
  • Gunter Leguy,
  • William H. Lipscomb,
  • Christopher M Little,
  • Daniel P Lowry,
  • Mathieu Morlighem,
  • Isabel Nias,
  • Frank Pattyn,
  • Tyler Pelle,
  • Stephen Price,
  • Aurelien Quiquet,
  • Ronja Reese,
  • Martin Rückamp,
  • Nicole -J. Schlegel,
  • Helene Seroussi,
  • Andrew Shepherd,
  • Erika Simon,
  • Donald A Slater,
  • Robin Smith,
  • Fiamma Straneo,
  • Sainan Sun,
  • Lev Tarasov,
  • Luke Trusel,
  • Jonas Van Breedam,
  • Roderik S. W. van de Wal,
  • Michiel R. van den Broeke,
  • Ricarda Winkelmann,
  • Chen Zhao,
  • Tong Zhang,
  • Thomas Zwinger
Antony J Payne
University of Bristol

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sophie Nowicki
University at Buffalo
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Ayako Abe-Ouchi
University of Tokyo
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Cécile Agosta
Unknown
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Patrick M. Alexander
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
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Torsten Albrecht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Xylar S Asay-Davis
Los Alamos National Laboratory (DOE)
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Andy Aschwanden
University of Alaska Fairbanks
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Alice Barthel
Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Thomas J. Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey
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Reinhard Calov
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Christopher Chambers
Hokkaido University
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Youngmin Choi
University of California, Irvine
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Richard I. Cullather
University of Maryland, College Park
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Joshua K Cuzzone
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
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Christophe dumas
CEA
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Tamsin Edwards
King's College London
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Denis Felikson
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Xavier Fettweis
University of Liège
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Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi
Australian Antarctic Division
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Heiko Goelzer
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Rupert Gladstone
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
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Nicholas R. Golledge
Victoria University of Wellington
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Jonathan M. Gregory
University of Reading
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Ralf Greve
Hokkaido University
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Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway
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Matthew J. Hoffman
Los Alamos National Laboratory (DOE)
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Angelika Humbert
Alfred Wegner Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Science
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Philippe Huybrechts
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
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Nicolas C Jourdain
French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS)
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Thomas Kleiner
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Peter Kuipers Munneke
Utrecht University
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Eric Yves Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Sebastien Le clec'h
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
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Victoria Lee
University of Bristol
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Gunter Leguy
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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William H. Lipscomb
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Christopher M Little
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
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Daniel P Lowry
GNS Science
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Mathieu Morlighem
University of California, Irvine
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Isabel Nias
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Frank Pattyn
Université Libre de Bruxelles
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Tyler Pelle
University of California, Irvine
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Stephen Price
Los Alamos National Laboratory (DOE)
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Aurelien Quiquet
Universite Paris-Saclay
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Ronja Reese
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Martin Rückamp
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Nicole -J. Schlegel
California Institute of Technology
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Helene Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Andrew Shepherd
University of Leeds
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Erika Simon
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Donald A Slater
University of St Andrews
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Robin Smith
University of Reading,
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Fiamma Straneo
UCSD
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Sainan Sun
Université Libre de Bruxelles
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Lev Tarasov
Memorial University St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
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Luke Trusel
Pennsylvania State University
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Jonas Van Breedam
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
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Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Utrecht University
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Michiel R. van den Broeke
Utrecht University
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Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Chen Zhao
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
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Tong Zhang
Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Thomas Zwinger
CSC - IT Center for Science Ltd.
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Abstract

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.