Most land surface models (LSMs) do not explicitly represent surface ponding, infiltration of ponded water, or the soil macropore effects on infiltration, percolation, and groundwater recharge. In this study, we implement a dual-permeability model (DPM) based on the mixed-form Richards’ equation, which solves pressure head continuously across unsaturated and saturated zones while conserves mass, into the Noah-MP LSM to represent slow flow through soil matrix and rapid flow through macropore networks. The model explicitly computes surface ponding depth, infiltration of ponded water, and runoff beyond a ponding threshold (infiltration-excess runoff) by switching the atmospheric boundary condition between head and flux boundary conditions. The new model also provides two optional soil water retention models of Van Genuchten (VG) and Brooks-Corey (BC). Model experiments over the conterminous US indicate that 1) surface ponded water and its runoff contribute substantially to seasonal variations in total water storage and peak flows in wet regions with low soil permeability (e.g., the Lower Mississippi River and surrounding regions), 2) the VG model produces drier topsoil with less soil surface evaporation than does the BC model with the Clapp-Hornberger parameters, especially during droughts and in dry regions, better matching remote sensing soil moisture, and 3) DMP produces more runoff with increased subsurface runoff, thereby improving the modeling skill at monthly scale over all subbasins of the Mississippi River, especially for low flow events. This study also highlights the importance of consistent representations of soil and plant hydraulics in Earth System Models to modeling ecosystem drought resilience.

This work documents version two of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SM version 2 (E3SMv2) is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting of 110 km atmosphere, 165 km land, 0.5° river routing model, and an ocean and sea ice with mesh spacing varying between 60 km in the mid-latitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles. The model performance is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima (DECK) simulations augmented with historical simulations as well as simulations to evaluate impacts of different forcing agents. The simulated climate is generally realistic, with notable improvements in clouds and precipitation compared to E3SMv1. E3SMv1 suffered from an excessively high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. In E3SMv2, ECS is reduced to 4.0 K which is now within the plausible range based on a recent World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) assessment. However, E3SMv2 significantly underestimates the global mean surface temperature in the second half of the historical record. An analysis of single-forcing simulations indicates that correcting the historical temperature bias would require a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the aerosol-related forcing.

Water availability in the dry Western United States (US) under a warming climate and increasing water use demand has become a serious concern. Previous studies have projected future runoff changes across the Western US but ignored the impacts of ecosystem response to elevated CO2 concentration. Here, we aim to understand the impacts of elevated CO2 on future runoff changes through ecosystem responses to both rising CO2 and associated warming using the Noah-MP model with representations of vegetation dynamics and plant hydraulics. We first validated Noah-MP against observed runoff, LAI, and terrestrial water storage anomaly from 1980–2015. We then projected future runoff with Noah-MP under downscaled climates from three climate models under RCP8.5. The projected runoff declines variably from the Pacific Northwest by –11% to the Lower Colorado River basin by –92% from 2016–2099. To discern the exact causes, we conducted an attribution analysis of two additional sensitivity experiments: one with constant CO2 and another with monthly LAI climatology based on the Penman-Monteith equation. Results show that surface “greening” (due to the CO2 fertilization effect) and the stomatal closure effect are the second largest contributors to future runoff change, following the warming effect. These two counteracting CO2 effects are roughly compensatory, leaving the warming effect to remain the dominant contributor to the projected runoff declines at large river basin scales. This study suggests that both surface “greening” and stomatal closure effects are important factors and should be considered together in water resource projections.

Surface latent heat fluxes help maintain tropical intraseasonal precipitation. We develop a latent heat flux diagnostic that depicts how latent heat fluxes vary with the near-surface specific humidity vertical gradient (dq) and surface wind speed (|V|). Compared to fluxes estimated from |V| and dq measured at tropical moorings and the COARE3.0 algorithm, tropical latent heat fluxes in the NCAR CEMS2 and DOE E3SMv1 models are significantly overestimated at |V| and dq extrema. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) sensitivity to surface flux algorithm is tested with offline and inline flux corrections. The offline correction adjusts model output fluxes toward mooring-estimated fluxes; the inline correction replaces the original bulk flux algorithm with the COARE3.0 algorithm in atmosphere-only simulations of each model. Both corrections reduce the latent heat flux feedback to intraseasonal precipitation, in better agreement with observations, suggesting that model-simulated fluxes are overly supportive for maintaining MJO convection.

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. The Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.