Calvin Howes

and 22 more

The southeast Atlantic Ocean provides an excellent natural laboratory to study smoke-cloud interactions, a large driver of uncertainty in climate projections. The value of studying this in particular region is largely attributable to two factors---the expansive, bright, semi-permanent stratocumulus cloud deck and the fact that southern Africa is the largest source of biomass-burning aerosols in the world. We study this region using the WRF-Chem model with CAM5 aerosols and in situ observations from the ORACLES, LASIC, and CLARIFY field campaigns, all of which overlapped in August 2017. Across these campaigns, we compare aerosol, cloud, and thermodynamic variables to quantify model performance and expand upon observational findings of aerosol-cloud effects. Specifically, our approach is to analyze aerosol and cloud properties along flight tracks, picking out uniform legs within tropospheric smoke plumes and in the boundary layer. This unique approach allows us to sample the high spatiotemporal variability that can get lost to large-scale averaging. It also allows process-level comparison of local cloud responses to aerosol conditions, and measure model performance in those same processes. Along with better quantifying model predictive power, we find and justify updates to model parameters and processes to better emulate observations, notably aerosol size parameters. Preliminary results suggest that WRF-CAM5 is activating a smaller percentage of aerosols into cloud droplets than shown in observations, which could lead to biased modeling of aerosol indirect radiative effects on a larger scale. We explore this effect further with CCN activation tendency, updraft, particle sizing, and composition analysis, as well as broader dynamics like entrainment and removal rates. Comparing the model with similar instrument suites across multiple colocated campaigns also allows us to quantify instrument uncertainty in ways that a focus on a single campaign cannot and gives further context to the model performance.

Calvin Howes

and 20 more

Aerosol-cloud interactions are both uncertain and important in global and regional climate models, and especially in the southeast Atlantic Ocean. This uncertainty in the region is largely due to two correlated factors---the expansive, bright, semi-permanent stratocumulus cloud deck and the fact that southern Africa is the largest source of biomass-burning aerosols in the world. We study this region using the WRF-Chem model with CAM5 aerosols and in situ observations from the ORACLES and LASIC field campaigns in August-October of 2016 through 2018. We compare aerosol and cloud properties to measure and improve model performance and expand upon observational findings of aerosol-cloud effects. Relevant comparison variables include aerosol number concentration, mean particle diameter and spread, CCN activation tendency, hygroscopicity, and cloud droplet number concentrations. Specifically, our approach is to analyze colocated model data along flight tracks to resolve aerosol-cloud interactions. Within and between single-day flights, there is high spatiotemporal variability that can get lost to large-scale averaging analyses. We have found that CCN is substantially under-represented in the model compared to observations. For a given aerosol number concentration, size, supersaturation and hygroscopicity, the model will consider fewer particles as CCN than observations indicate. We plan to explore this result further, diagnosing the model-observation differences more consistently and updating the model with more physically accurate values of aerosol size, concentration, or hygroscopicity based on observations. We will also intercompare multiple instrument platforms involved with the ORACLES and LASIC campaigns. With improved small-scale aerosol-cloud interactions, this work also shows promise to substantially improve that representation in climate models.