Abstract
We present probabilistic centroid-moment tensor solutions inferred from
the combination of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and a 3-D
full-waveform inversion Earth model of the Japanese archipelago. While
the former provides complete posterior probability densities, the latter
allows us to exploit waveform data with periods as low as 15 s. For the
computation of Green’s functions, we employ spectral-element simulations
through the radially anisotropic and visco-elastic model, leading to
substantial improvements of data fit compared to layered models.
Focusing on Mw 4.8 - Mw 5.3 offshore earthquakes with a significant
non-double-couple component, we simultaneously infer the centroid
location, time and moment tensor without any a priori constraints on the
faulting mechanism. Furthermore, we perform the inversions across
several period bands, varying the minimum period between 15 s and 50 s.
Accounting for 3-D Earth structure at shorter periods can increase the
double-couple component of an event, compared to the GCMT solution, by
tens of percent. This suggests that at least some of the
non-double-couple events in the GCMT catalog might result from unmodeled
Earth structure. We also observe that significant changes in source
parameters, and the double-couple component in particular, may be
related to only small waveform changes, thereby accentuating the
importance of a reliable Earth model. Posterior probability density
distributions become increasingly multimodal for shorter-period data
that provide tighter constraints on source parameters. This implies, in
our specific case, that stochastic approaches to the source inversion
problem are required for periods below ~ 20 s to avoid
trapping in local minima.