Anthropogenic influence on recent severe autumn fire weather in the west
coast of the United States
Abstract
Extreme wind-driven autumn wildfires are hazardous to life and property,
due to their rapid rate of spread. Recent catastrophic autumn wildfires
in the western United States co-occurred with record- or near-record
autumn fire weather indices that are a byproduct of extreme fuel dryness
and strong offshore dry winds. Here, we use a formal, probabilistic,
extreme event attribution analysis to investigate anthropogenic
influence on recent extreme autumn fire weather events. We show that
while present-day anthropogenic climate change has slightly decreased
the prevalence of strong offshore downslope winds, it has increased the
likelihood of extreme fire weather indices by 40%, primarily through
increased autumn fuel aridity and warmer temperatures during dry wind
events. These findings illustrate that anthropogenic climate change is
exacerbating autumn fire weather extremes that contribute to high-impact
catastrophic fires in populated regions of the western US.