Abstract
A framework to enable Earth system predictability research on the
subseasonal timescale is developed with the Community Earth System
Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two model configurations that differ in
their atmospheric components. One configuration uses the Community
Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to
as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate
Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ~ 140 km
in the vertical and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and
stratospheric chemistry (CESM2(WACCM6)). Both configurations were used
to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the time period 1999 to 2020
following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. CESM2(CAM6) and
CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-meter
temperature, precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the Community Earth System Model,
version 1 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CESM1(CAM5))
and to operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) reforecast sets
provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple
Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many
variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere
(MLT) region. We show that MLT variability can be predicted
~ 10 days in advance of sudden stratospheric warming
events. Weekly real-time forecasts with CESM2(WACCM6) contribute to the
multi-model mean ensemble forecast used to issue the NOAA weeks 3-4
outlooks. As a freely available community model, both CESM2
configurations can be used to carry out additional experiments to
elucidate sources of subseasonal predictability.