Abstract
Wildfire is an important but understudied natural hazard. Research on
wildfire, as with other natural hazards, is all too often conducted at a
spatial scale that is too broad to identify local or even regional
patterns. This study addresses these research gaps by examining the
current and future wildfire risk, considering projections of population
and property value, at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S. state
with relatively dense population and abundant timber resources that
would be vulnerable to loss from this hazard. Here wildfire risk is
defined as the product of vulnerability to the hazard (which is itself
defined as the product of burn probability, damage probability, and
percent damaged) and exposure to the hazard, the latter of which is
represented here by property value. Historical data (1992-2015) suggest
that the highest risk is in southwestern inland, east-central, extreme
northwestern, and coastal southwestern Louisiana. Based on existing
climate and environmental model output, this research assumes that
wildfire will increase by 25 percent by 2050 in Louisiana from current
values. When combined with projections of population and property value,
it is determined that the geographic distribution of risk by 2050 will
remain similar to that today-with highest risk in southwestern inland
Louisiana and east-central Louisiana. However, the magnitude of risk
will increase across the state, especially in those areas. These results
will assist environmental planners in preparing for and mitigating a
substantial hazard that often goes underestimated.