Large uncertainties persist in modeling shallow, low clouds because there are many interacting nonlinear processes and multiple cloud-controlling environmental factors. In addition, sharp changes in behavior can occur when environmental thresholds are met. Model studies that follow a traditional approach of exploring the effects of factors "one-at-a-time" are unable to capture interactions between factors. We simulate a stratocumulus cloud based on the Second Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus field study using a large-eddy simulation model coupled with a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme. The simulations are used to train a Gaussian process emulator, which we then use to visualize the relationships between two cloud-controlling factors and domain-averaged cloud properties. Only 29 model simulations were required to train the emulators, which then predicted cloud properties at thousands of new combinations of the two factors. Emulator response surfaces of cloud liquid water path and cloud fraction show two behavioral regimes, one of thin and patchy yet steady stratocumulus and one of thick, growing stratocumulus with cloud fraction near 1. Natural variability (initial-condition uncertainty) creates unrealistic "bumpy" response surfaces. However, we show that the variability causing the bumpiness can be characterized in an emulator "nugget term" that is adjusted to match the distribution of a small number of initial-condition ensemble simulations at various points on the surface, thereby allowing a smoother, deterministic response surface to be constructed. Accounting for variability leads to the firm conclusion that there is a smooth but steep change in cloud behavior between regimes, but not a sharp transition.

The uncertainty in present-day anthropogenic forcing is dominated by uncertainty in the strength of the contribution from aerosol. Much of the uncertainty in the direct aerosol forcing can be attributed to uncertainty in the anthropogenic fraction of aerosol in the present-day atmosphere, due to a lack of historical observations. Here we present a robust relationship between total present-day aerosol optical depth and the anthropogenic contribution across two multi-model ensembles and a large single-model perturbed parameter ensemble. Using observations of aerosol optical depth, we determine a reduced likely range of the anthropogenic component and hence a reduced uncertainty in the direct forcing of aerosol.

The widespread presence of meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) within a distinct class of stratospheric aerosol particles has become clear from in-situ measurements in the Arctic, Antarctic and at mid-latitudes. We apply an adapted version of the interactive stratosphere aerosol configuration of the composition-climate model UM-UKCA, to predict the global distribution of meteoric-sulphuric particles nucleated heterogeneously on MSP cores. We compare the UM-UKCA results to new MSP-sulphuric simulations with the European stratosphere-troposphere chemistry-aerosol modelling system IFS-CB05-BASCOE-GLOMAP. The simulations show a strong seasonal cycle in meteoric-sulphuric particle abundance results from the winter-time source of MSPs transported down into the stratosphere in the polar vortex. Coagulation during downward transport sees high latitude MSP concentrations reduce from ~500 per cm3 at 40km to ~20 per cm3 at 25km, the uppermost extent of the stratospheric aerosol particle layer (the Junge layer). Once within the Junge layer’s supersaturated environment, meteoric-sulphuric particles form readily on the MSP cores, growing to 50-70nm dry-diameter (Dp) at 20-25km. Further inter-particle coagulation between these non-volatile particles reduces their number to 1-5 per cc at 15-20km, particle sizes there larger, at Dp ~100nm. The model predicts meteoric-sulphurics in high-latitude winter comprise >90% of Dp > 10nm particles above 25km, reducing to ~40% at 20km, and ~10% at 15km. These non-volatile particle fractions are slightly less than measured from high-altitude aircraft in the lowermost Arctic stratosphere (Curtius et al., 2005; Weigel et al., 2014), and consistent with mid-latitude aircraft measurements of lower stratospheric aerosol composition (Murphy et al., 1998), total particle concentrations also matching in-situ balloon measurements from Wyoming (Campbell and Deshler, 2014). The MSP-sulphuric interactions also improve agreement with SAGE-II observed stratospheric aerosol extinction in the quiescent 1998-2002 period. Simulations with a factor-8-elevated MSP input form more Dp>10nm meteoric-sulphurics, but the increased number sees fewer growing to Dp ~100nm, the increased MSPs reducing the stratospheric aerosol layer’s light extinction.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth’s radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This poster presents the outcome of an international workshop and subsequent review paper, which quantify the likely range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes narrow the range of the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions compared to the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction and on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to total aerosol radiative forcing ranges that are of similar width to the last IPCC assessment but more clearly based on physical arguments.