An investigation of midlatitude circulation errors in a hierarchy of
climate prediction ensembles
Abstract
The projected response of the atmospheric circulation to changes driven
by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is highly uncertain. One of
the primary reasons for this is that the state-of-the-art models we
employ to investigate these responses struggle to represent basic
features of the midlatitude circulation such as storm tracks, jets and
blocking. Biases also have detrimental effects on predictive skill for
dynamically driven fields at climate prediction time scales of seasons
to decades. Despite this, physical understanding of the controls on
these features and the drivers of their biases is still limited. Here we
investigate a hierarchy of large ensemble climate reanalysis and
hindcast simulations performed by the Norwegian Earth System Model
(NorESM). Each ensemble is 30 members and was run from 1985-2010. For
the reanalysis runs various data-assimilation strategies were employed.
These are: SST only, SST plus hydrographic profiles, SST plus
hydrographic profiles plus sea-ice concentration. The assimilation was
performed monthly after which the model runs freely. These are compared
to both free runs and AMIP-style simulations with ERA-Interim serving as
ground truth. We evaluate the North Pacific and North Atlantic jets in
winter and summer. We also identify where the observations lie within
the predictive distribution of the ensemble. Results show that the North
Atlantic jet is too zonal, extends too far into Europe and is shifted
northwards. Virtually the entire North Atlantic sector lies outside the
predictive distribution of the ensemble and performance actually
degrades in the simulations with tighter constraints on the
assimilation. By contrast the North Pacific jet is rather better
represented in all aspects both with respect to pattern as well as
magnitude of the biases. This is likely due to the better-represented
teleconnections between the tropical and extratropical Pacific.
Comparison of these ensembles with AMIP simulations suggests that the
errors in the midlatitude circulation reside in the atmospheric
component of the model. We also present results from hindcast
simulations where NorCPM was initialized at different times of the year
and then run forward 12 months. Implications and causes of the varying
behavior among the ensembles are discussed as well as prospects for the
future.