Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate
Change-Driven Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the
Chesapeake Bay.
Abstract
Future projections of sea-level rise used to assess coastal flooding
hazards and exposure throughout the 21st century and
devise risk mitigation efforts often lack an accurate estimate of
coastal Vertical Land Motion (VLM) rate, driven by anthropogenic and
non-climate factors in addition to climatic factors. The Chesapeake Bay
(CB) region of the United States is experiencing one of the fastest
rates of relative sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United
States. This study uses a combination of space-borne Interferometric SAR
(InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Light Detecting and
Ranging (LIDAR) datasets, available National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) long term tide gauge data, and sea-level rise
projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
AR6 WG1 to quantify the regional rate of RSLR and future flooding
hazards for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. By the year 2100, the total
inundated areas from SLR and subsidence are projected to be 454-600 for
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-1.9 to 5-8.5 respectively, and
343-627 only from SLR. The effect of storm surges based on Hurricane
Isabel can increase the inundated area to 849-1117 km2
under different VLM and SLR scenarios. We present that accurate
estimates of the VLM rate, such as those obtained here, are essential to
revise IPCC projections and obtain accurate maps of coastal flooding and
inundation hazards. The results provided here inform policymakers when
assessing hazards associated with global climate changes and local
factors in CB, required for developing risk management and disaster
resilience plans.