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The Chesapeake Bay (CB) region of the United States is experiencing one
of the fastest rates of relative sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of
the United States. However, future projections of sea-level rise used to
assess coastal flooding hazards and exposure throughout the 21st century
often lack an accurate estimate of coastal Vertical Land Motion rate.
This poses a significant challenge to present and future management
efforts and plans as it undermines flooding in coastal communities. In
this work we devise a framework to combine space-based techniques and
ground measurement to obtain vertical land motion to assess hundred
years flooding hazards due to Sea Level Rise, storm surge, and land
subsidence in the Chesapeake Bay of the United States. By the year 2100,
the total inundated areas from SLR and subsidence are projected to be
454-600 \(\text{km}^{2}\) for very low to very high greenhouse gas
scenario 1-1.9 to 5-8.5 respectively and 343-627 \(\text{km}^{2}\) only
from SLR. The effect of storm surges based on Hurricane Isabel can
increase the inundated area to 849-1117 km2 under
different VLM and SLR scenarios. The results provided here inform
policymakers when assessing hazards associated with global climate
changes and local factors in CB for disaster resilience.
Future projections of sea-level rise used to assess coastal flooding
hazards and exposure throughout the 21st century and
devise risk mitigation efforts often lack an accurate estimate of
coastal Vertical Land Motion (VLM) rate, driven by anthropogenic and
non-climate factors in addition to climatic factors. The Chesapeake Bay
(CB) region of the United States is experiencing one of the fastest
rates of relative sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United
States. This study uses a combination of space-borne Interferometric SAR
(InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Light Detecting and
Ranging (LIDAR) datasets, available National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) long term tide gauge data, and sea-level rise
projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
AR6 WG1 to quantify the regional rate of RSLR and future flooding
hazards for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. By the year 2100, the total
inundated areas from SLR and subsidence are projected to be 454-600\(\text{km}^{2}\) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-1.9 to
5-8.5 respectively and 343-627 \(\text{km}^{2}\) only from SLR. The
effect of storm surges based on Hurricane Isabel can increase the
inundated area to 849-1117 km2 under different VLM and
SLR scenarios. We present that accurate estimates of VLM rate, such as
those obtained here, are essential to revise IPCC projections and obtain
accurate maps of coastal flooding and inundation hazards. The results
provided here inform policymakers when assessing hazards associated with
global climate changes and local factors in CB, required for developing
risk management and disaster resilience plans.