SWAT-Tb with improved LAI representation in the tropics highlights the
role of forests in watershed regulation
Abstract
Projecting the potential impacts of LULC (Land Use/Land Cover) change on
watershed hydrological response is critical for water management
decisions in a changing environment. An improved representation of
vegetation dynamics is needed to improve the capability of several
hydrological models to produce reliable projections of these impacts.
Here we in troduce a modification in the plant growth module of SWAT
(Soil Water Assessment Tool) to improve the representation of the
bimodal seasonality of LAI (Leaf Area Index), which is particularly
important for tropical watersheds with bimodal precipitation regimes.
The new SWAT-Tb variant that we propose here reproduces not only
observed streamflow, but also the bimodal seasonal pattern of LAI in a
tropical mountain watershed of the Andes. In contrast, standard SWAT is
inherently unable to reproduce this bimodality, although it can be
calibrated to reproduce streamflow. Differences between models in the
representation of LAI seasonality can lead to significantly different
results about LULC change impacts on streamflow. SWAT-Tb results show
that deforestation impacts on streamflow are more pronounced for
seasonal than for annual streamflow, and indicate that forests can play
a crucial role in enhancing water availability during dry seasons. The
seasonality of streamflow anomalies is switched due to forest-to-pasture
conversion, implying that while forest expansion increases water
availability in dry seasons, forest conversion into pasture decreases
it. Due to its poor representation of LAI seasonality, standard SWAT
largely underestimates this role of forest, which can be misleading for
decision making about water security and forest conservation