Modeled and satellite-derived extreme wave height statistics in the
North Atlantic Ocean reaching 20 m
Abstract
Wave statistics of the North Atlantic Ocean, instrumental in designing
merchant ships, were revisited by an in-house high-resolution 25-year
wave hindcast (TodaiWW3-NK). The tail of the exceedance probability of
$H_s$ was extended to 20 m and compared surprisingly well against the
satellite altimeter. Moreover, we have found that the largest storm
event in 25 years with the highest wave over 21 m in January 2014
significantly enhanced the tail of the $H_s$ distribution, which is a
feature that was common among the three wave-hindcasts (ERA5/ECMWF,
IOWAGA/IFREMER, and TodaiWW3-NK). Paradoxically, the satellite altimeter
did not detect the $H_s$ at the peak of this storm. We found that
extreme wave heights from models and satellites of three storms in 2007,
2011, and 2014 may deviate about a few meters among the estimates,
particularly the altimeter having a large uncertainty. In-situ
observations of the extreme wave events are urgently in need.