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GFDL SHiELD: A Unified System for Weather-to-Seasonal Prediction
  • +19
  • Lucas Harris,
  • Linjiong Zhou,
  • Shian-Jiann Lin,
  • Jan-Huey Chen,
  • Xi Chen,
  • Kun Gao,
  • Matthew Morin,
  • Shannon Rees,
  • Y. Qiang Sun,
  • Mingjing Tong,
  • Baoqiang Xiang,
  • Morris Bender,
  • Rusty Benson,
  • Kai-Yuan Cheng,
  • Spencer Clark,
  • Oliver Elbert,
  • Andrew Hazelton,
  • Jacob Huff,
  • Alex Kaltenbaugh,
  • Zhi Liang,
  • Timothy Marchok,
  • Hyeyum Hailey Shin
Lucas Harris
GFDL, GFDL, GFDL

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Linjiong Zhou
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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Shian-Jiann Lin
NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL
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Jan-Huey Chen
NOAA GFDL/ UCAR, NOAA GFDL/ UCAR, NOAA GFDL/ UCAR
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Xi Chen
Princeton University, Princeton University, Princeton University
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Kun Gao
Princeton University, Princeton University, Princeton University
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Matthew Morin
DRC/GFDL/NOAA, DRC/GFDL/NOAA, DRC/GFDL/NOAA
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Shannon Rees
NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL
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Y. Qiang Sun
Princeton/GFDL, Princeton/GFDL, Princeton/GFDL
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Mingjing Tong
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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Baoqiang Xiang
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, UCAR, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, UCAR, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, UCAR
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Morris Bender
NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL
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Rusty Benson
NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL
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Kai-Yuan Cheng
Princeton University, Princeton University, Princeton University
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Spencer Clark
Vulcan, Inc, Vulcan, Inc, Vulcan, Inc
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Oliver Elbert
Vulcan, Inc, Vulcan, Inc, Vulcan, Inc
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Andrew Hazelton
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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Jacob Huff
UCAR, UCAR, UCAR
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Alex Kaltenbaugh
UCAR, UCAR, UCAR
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Zhi Liang
NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/GFDL
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Timothy Marchok
NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NOAA GFDL, Princeton
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Hyeyum Hailey Shin
UCAR/Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science and NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, UCAR/Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science and NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, UCAR/Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science and NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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Abstract

We present the System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD), an atmosphere model coupling the nonhydrostatic FV3 Dynamical Core to a physics suite originally taken from the Global Forecast System. SHiELD is designed to demonstrate new capabilities within its components, explore new model applications, and to answer scientific questions through these new functionalities. A variety of configurations are presented, including short-to-medium-range and subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, global-to-regional convective-scale hurricane and contiguous US precipitation forecasts, and global cloud-resolving modeling. Advances within SHiELD can be seamlessly transitioned into other Unified Forecast System (UFS) or FV3-based models, including operational implementations of the UFS. Continued development of SHiELD has shown improvement upon existing models. The flagship 13-km SHiELD demonstrates steadily improved large-scale prediction skill and precipitation prediction skill. SHiELD and the coarser-resolution S-SHiELD demonstrate a superior diurnal cycle compared to existing climate models; the latter also demonstrates 28 days of useful prediction skill for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The global-to-regional nested configurations T-SHiELD (tropical Atlantic) and C-SHiELD (contiguous United States) shows significant improvement in hurricane structure from a new tracer advection scheme and promise for medium-range prediction of convective storms, respectively.
Oct 2020Published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems volume 12 issue 10. 10.1029/2020MS002223