Abstract
This work presents a new approach to defining drought, establishing an
empirical relationship between historical droughts (and wet spells)
documented in impact reports, and a broad range of observed
drought-related climate features. A Random Forest (RF) algorithm was
trained to identify the particular combinations of predictors – such as
precipitation, soil moisture and potential evapotranspiration – that
led to categorical, documented drought or non-drought events. Unlike
traditional drought definitions, the new RF drought indicator combines
meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic drought,
providing drought information for all impacted sectors. The metric also
quantifies the conditional probability of drought (rather than being
threshold-based), considering multiple climate features and their
interactive effect, and can be used for forecasting. The approach was
validated out-of-sample across several random selections of training and
testing datasets, and demonstrated better predictive capabilities than
commonly used drought indicators in a range of performance metrics.
Furthermore, it showed a comparable performance to the (expert
elicitation-based) US Drought Monitor (USDM) which is the current
state-of-the-art record of historical drought in the USA. As well as
providing an alternative historical drought indicator to USDM, the RF
approach offers additional advantages by being automated, by providing
drought information at the grid-scale, and by having predictive
capacity. As a proof-of-concept case, the RF drought indicator was
trained on Texan climate data and droughts, and validated in all Texas
ecoregions. However, the introduced approach can be easily implemented
to develop a RF drought indicator for new regions if adequate
information on historical droughts is available.