Understanding the eco-geomorphologic feedback of coastal marsh under sea
level rise: vegetation dynamic representations, processes interaction,
and parametric sensitivity
Abstract
A growing number of coastal eco-geomorphologic modeling studies have
been conducted to understand coastal marsh evolution under sea level
rise (SLR). Although these models quantify marsh topographic change as a
function of sedimentation and erosion, their representations of
vegetation dynamics that control organic sedimentation differ. How
vegetation dynamic schemes and parameter values contribute to simulation
outcomes is still not quantified. Additionally, the sensitivity of
modeling outcomes on parameter selection in the available formulations
has not been rigorously tested to date, especially under the influence
of an accelerating SLR. This knowledge gap severely limits modeling
accuracy and the estimation of the vulnerability of coastal marshes
under SLR. In this paper, we used coastal eco-geomorphologic models with
different vegetation dynamic schemes to investigate the
eco-geomorphologic feedbacks of coastal marshes and parametric
sensitivity under SLR scenarios. We found that marsh accretion rate near
the seaward boundary can keep pace with moderate and high rates of SLR,
while interior marsh regions are vulnerable to a high rate of SLR. The
simulations with different vegetation schemes exhibit diversity in
elevation and biomass profiles and parametric sensitivity. We also found
that the model parametric sensitivity varies with rates of future SLR.
Vegetation-related parameters and sediment diffusivity, which are not
well measured or discussed in previous studies, are identified as some
of the most critical parameters. Our findings provide insights to
appropriately choose modeling presentations of key processes and
feedbacks for different coastal marsh landscapes under SLR, which has
practical implications for coastal ecosystem management and protection.