Abstract
A novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) for ensemble
forecasts of daily streamflow that uses the spatial dependence induced
by the river network topology and hydrometeorological variables from the
upstream contributing area between station gauges is presented. Model
parameters are allowed to vary with time as functions of selected
covariates for each day. Using the network structure to incorporate flow
information from upstream gauges and precipitation from the immediate
contributing area as covariates allows one to model the spatial
correlation of flows simultaneously and parsimoniously. An application
to daily monsoon period (July-August) streamflow at four gauges in the
Narmada basin in central India for the period 1978 – 2014 is presented.
The covariates include daily streamflow from upstream gauges or from the
gauge above of the upstream gauges depending on travel times and daily,
2-day, or 3-day precipitation from the area between two stations. The
model validation indicates that the model is highly skillful relative to
climatology and relative to a null-model of linear regression. We
applied the BHNM out of sample to two high flooding years. High skill in
both the timing and magnitude of the events is demonstrated.