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Meteorology, not emissions, helps explain an upward trend in atmospheric methane across the US
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  • Leyang Feng,
  • Sakineh Tavakkoli,
  • Sarah Jordaan,
  • Arlyn Elizabeth Andrews,
  • Joshua Benmergui,
  • Darryn W. Waugh,
  • Mingyang Zhang,
  • Dylan C. Gaeta,
  • Scot Miller
Leyang Feng
Johns Hopkins University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sakineh Tavakkoli
Johns Hopkins University
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Sarah Jordaan
Johns Hopkins University
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Arlyn Elizabeth Andrews
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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Joshua Benmergui
Harvard University
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Darryn W. Waugh
Johns Hopkins University
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Mingyang Zhang
Johns Hopkins University
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Dylan C. Gaeta
Johns Hopkins University
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Scot Miller
Johns Hopkins University
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Abstract

US natural gas production increased by ~43% between 2005 and 2015, but there is disagreement in the scientific literature on whether this growth led to increased methane emissions. In this study, we evaluate the possible contributions of emissions versus meteorology to an upward trend in US atmospheric methane observations during 2007-2015. We find that interannual variability (IAV) in meteorology yields an apparent upward trend in atmospheric methane across much of the US. We further find that IAV in atmospheric methane at several observation sites is correlated with IAV in local wind speed. Overall, our results show that US trends in atmospheric methane largely reflect variability in meteorology, and are unlikely to be a direct reflection of trends in emissions. The results of this study therefore lend support for the conclusion that there was little upward trend in US methane emissions during this time.