Modeling radiation belt electrons with information theory informed
neural network
Abstract
An empirical model of radiation belt relativistic electrons (m =
560–875 MeV G–1 and I = 0.088–0.14
RE G0.5) with average energy
~ 1.3 MeV is developed. The model inputs solar wind
parameters (velocity, density, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
|B|, Bz, and By), magnetospheric state parameters
(SYM-H, AL), and L*. The model outputs radiation belt electron phase
space density (PSD). The model is operational from L* = 3 to 6.5. The
model is constructed with neural network assisted by information theory.
Information theory is used to select the most effective and relevant
solar wind and magnetospheric input parameters plus their lag times
based on their information transfer to the PSD. Based on the test set,
the model prediction efficiency (PE) increases with increasing L*,
ranging from –0.043 at L* = 3 to 0.76 at L* = 6.5. The model PE is near
0 at L* = 3–4 because at this L* range, the solar wind and
magnetospheric parameters transfer little information to the PSD. This
baseline model complements well a class of empirical models that input
data from Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Using solar wind observations at L1 and
magnetospheric index (AL and SYM-H) models solely driven by solar wind,
the radiation belt model can be used to forecast PSD 30–60 min ahead.