Tracking the spatio-temporal evolution of foreshocks preceding the Mw
6.3 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake
Abstract
How faulting processes lead to a large earthquake is a fundamental
question in seismology. To better constrain this pre-seismic stage, we
create a dense seismic catalog via template matching to analyze the
precursory phase of the Mw 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake that occurred in
central Italy in 2009. We estimate several physical parameters in time,
such as the coefficient of variation, the seismic moment release, the
effective stress drop, and analyze spatio-temporal patterns to study the
evolution of the sequence and the earthquake interactions. We observe
that the precursory phase experiences multiple accelerations of the
seismicity rate that we divide into two main sequences with different
signatures and features: the first part exhibits weak earthquake
interactions, quasi-continuous moment release, slow spatial migration
patterns, and a lower effective stress drop, pointing to aseismic
processes. The second sequence exhibits strong temporal clustering,
rapid spatial expansion of the seismicity and larger effective stress
drop typical of a stress transfer process. We interpret the differences
in the seismicity behavior between the two sequences as distinct
physical mechanisms that are controlled by different physical properties
of the fault system. We conclude that the L’Aquila earthquake is
preceded by a complex preparation, made up of different physical
processes taking place over different time scales on faults with
different physical properties.